neon sync

Populations of different taxa often rise and fall together through time (a pattern called temporal synchrony) but sometimes they move in opposite directions or not at all. These rhythms can either steady ecosystems or make them more vulnerable to sudden change. Using data from the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), this project aims measure how strongly pairs of groups (for example, insects and the birds that eat them) move together, and how those patterns depend on species’ traits (like how fast they reproduce or what they eat) and local conditions (climate extremes, productivity, and disturbance such as fire or floods). Ultimately, this project will generate tools that provide early warning and practical guidance for conservation—helping managers prioritize vulnerable food-web links and focus monitoring where coordinated declines are most likely under global change.

Above: A conceptual illustration of temporal synchrony, which is the degree to which different taxa or populations co-vary over time. (a) Three types of synchrony: Synchrony, Anti-Synchrony and Asynchrony. (b) Example of modulators of synchrony such as disturbance and seasonality.

Right: Representation of the temporal extent of small mammal sampling at NEON sites. Each row corresponds to a small mammal species, and each dot is one observation.

This project is part of an ESIIL working group that is led by Tong Qiu (Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University), Allen Hurlbert (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill), John M. Grady (St. Mary’s College of Maryland), Phoebe Zarnetske (Michigan State University).